David Wright: 0:00

My guest today is Gary Mormino. Professor Emeritus at the University of South Florida. Gary's latest book is dreams in the new century, instant cities shattered hopes and Florida's turning point, a follow up to his earlier land of sunshine state of dreams, a social history of modern Florida. Today, we will talk about the social history of Florida. Gary, welcome to the show.

Gary Mormino: 0:19

I'm delighted to be here. Thanks.

David Wright: 0:21

First question. So it seems to me that the most unusual, I think social characteristic of Florida, especially compared to other states, is that the demographic profile of immigrants and there are a lot of immigrants and a lot of places the United States, right, but in Florida, a lot of them are old. It's very much a retirement kind of place. And so I would imagine that has an effect, again, compared to other high immigration states, on the social environment in Florida. So you can disagree with me on that premise with our comparison. And I'm wondering what would the consequences be of that difference in profile to other states?

Gary Mormino: 0:58

Well, it's no coincidence that Florida state song is all folks at home. Stephen Foster song, I don't believe foster ever set foot in Florida, by the way. And but it has not always been a place with unusual numbers of old people or immigrants from for most of American history, until the 1920s, or really, the post world war two era, Florida was too small, too distant, too hot, too humid, for Americans to care about or visit, they would visit in the winter, when they could, that really took off, probably in the 1880s. But if you had been at St. Petersburg, in the 1920s, that would have been a few communities that you would have thought was kind of a twilight zone, even though the term wasn't relevant. In the 1920s, St. Petersburg, Florida would have been one of the first where you had extraordinary numbers, by American standards of senior citizens. For the for the very simple reason, you don't really need me to explain this. But most Americans died far before their 60s until late in the 20th century. In fact, my wife was having the report replacement. Last spring, I was teaching a class in US history. And the doctor said, I'll call you at 1030. I said, Well, you aren't going to be in the middle of a lecture. And so while I need to let you know how it's going, so he calls, and I asked the students, I happen to be doing a lecture that day on the history of old age in America. I asked students I said you realize the reason I'm here and your grandparents are hearing great grandparents, penicillin, statin drugs, nearly replacements, all these things, right? I said, By the way, what do you think a knee replacement cost this 1819 year old. They said $1,200.15. So But getting back to your point. Senior citizens have have become so identified with Florida. It's I should have looked it up. But I think it's something like one of three Floridians is 65. And over. There are several counties in Florida that truly deserve Twilight Zone status, where there are more people 80 And older than eight. And below. That's the opposite of for most of American history, world history, you had huge numbers of young people, many of whom would never make it into adulthood. And they formed kind of the basis of the triangle. And then you had middle aged people and a very small number at the top. But for a variety of reasons, medical, political. We're living longer and longer, and it's had an immense impact upon Florida. Politically, this just in seniors vote, and often and they vote, they have a disproportionate amount of power in Florida. And it's not always true, but in some places. It makes it creates a great power struggle between people who have kids in schools and the schools aren't very good. And wanting to have a increase in the education tax and senior said, you know, I pay for my kids education in Cincinnati. Why should I vote myself a tax increase here? So you have that tension. seniors tend to drift Republican in Florida. Not There's an asterisk there unless you live on the east coast, Broward, palm beach. Miami Dade until three weeks ago, was a was a Democratic stronghold. It was Republican for the first time in decades, many decades. When Rudy Giuliani, Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, was campaigning for president. In 2008. He began his campaign, I think, at Boca Raton, or Palm Beach. And he said, I'm glad to be in New York City six rural, there were so many New Yorkers, so many bagel shops. So seniors matter in Florida.

David Wright: 5:47

What do they want?

Gary Mormino: 5:50

What they want? And it's an interesting question. They they want safety, they want to be left alone. They want to enjoy their golden years. I mean, I as a senior by the way, you may have noticed that gray here. I feel fortunate, you know, my son, I'm 75. And most of my ancestors never made it to 75. I'm still teaching seniors also one medical care. And then this is often a problem. And people though a lot of medical staffers are very low paid. Hence, you have this immigrant connection there. Seniors want to be respected politically, we this is a big deal. For instance, your viewers may or may not know the question. This has been true since 2000, maybe 2004. If you're running for national office, or statewide office in Florida, you begin your campaign in one place in Florida, you know the answer? Now, I wonder how many of your viewers know ever heard of the villages, the villages is pretty well known. Now. There are several documentaries. It's the prototypical senior citizen community. I think it may be 80 to 100,000. I mean, it's freakish, really in lots of ways. One time, they led the state in beer consumption, because they had their own brewery. And like from six to 630, you could get two for two for $1, draught beers, and the villages but George Bush, George W. Bush began the practice and now I mean, every national candidate begins to campaign because it's a Republican Bulwark. It's a kind of south of Gainesville, it's not near a major city at all. It overlaps three counties. It's when I gave a book talk there, I think in 2005, and it was the summer. The thing that's famous about the villages, people don't drive cars as much as golf carts, and they pimp up their golf carts, they'll put a Rolls Royce grill, or you know, their college colors and things like that. And so I'm speaking in the veranda room, this huge room, it's like 400 people there. And all this summer, all them are 75 and older. And everyone's wearing tennis shorts, tennis shoes, tennis shorts. And I'm thinking my sister and grandmother wearing black and heels with her clutch here rosary. And I remember asking, it's an unfair question. How many of you feel old? And I think one person raised their hand, which which is an important point. Old ages relative? In 1900, old age was probably 45. Today, and that's an interesting question, to ask your listeners. I would say 7075, maybe even older. But we're it's a we're getting older and older. And it's also very costly to the public, in terms of medical benefits, Social Security, Medicare, et cetera.

David Wright: 9:37

So does that mean that Florida, because he's just mentioned Medicare, which is so if I think of the priorities of the Florida electorate, if the marginal voter there as a senior citizen, health care for the state, ironically, might not be as important because it's more or less federally provided? Is that

Gary Mormino: 9:59

Well, Though you get your services locally, right, that's true.

David Wright: 10:03

But so they don't want necessarily to spend money. Because I'm thinking, what are some features of Florida that I kind of note? One of them is it's a very much, you know, a humongous ly diverse ethnic place. Right. But a lot of places are right. It's got a big retired population. That's unusual. It's got a massive coastline. Right. It's hot.

Gary Mormino: 10:27

1250 miles, I believe

David Wright: 10:28

it's it used to be an agricultural community, or area and kind of no longer is. And I, and it has no state tax. Right? Yes. And so I think that the no state tax and the agricultural thing, I kind of see how they can go together. No state income tax, right. But I'm just trying to think like, of those features, which ones are kind of the most powerful and explaining distinctiveness in Florida. And so that's kind of one maybe a theme you can just sort of keep touching on throughout this conversation. And what is it that is distinctive about Florida? That's like another question like, What is the Florida culture? Like, is there something there you have this Florida man stuff on Twitter, which is hilarious. And I wonder if that's real or distinct?

Gary Mormino: 11:14

I hate Florida man. But it is. It is hilarious. It's big. I, I take Florida very seriously. And, you know, we've got some serious problems. But it's a fascinating state. And I told you listeners that we have no state income tax. This, many people probably didn't realize this. But in the last three years, during the Great pandemic, Florida has had a huge relocation from California and New York, wealthy individuals who seek kind of asylum in Florida in a lot of ways. And they're already paying expensive real estate. So Florida probably seems cheap. Yeah, most of my friends are just their eyes are popping out at the price of real estate lately. Because Florida is so desirable. It's it's warm. It has 1200 50 miles of coastline. Something like 80% of the population lives within 30 miles of east coast, the senator is relatively unoccupied, you can still see a lot of cattle in places like DeSoto County and and places like that. Agriculture is slipping, it's still important, but But anyway, getting back to senior citizens. The variety of senior citizen life is fascinating. I remember, first time going to a senior citizen facility, not not 12 beds, but we're talking about places like Sun City Center, the villages and and just jaw dropping the expansive culture. There are scores and scores of clubs there. If you still played chess, they're a chess player, their knitting clubs or computer clubs. If you look at the social life, who's who's coming to play at the auditorium, it's like a rerun from the 1970s. These groups that were young in the 70s and 80s are now senior citizens and they're playing these clubs. Golden the golden years also spark remarriage and that's kind of sweet to see this long as it's not your grandmother that so it but it's you got the ethnic racial, the what I've rarely seen in Florida, by the way are our large numbers of African Americans at these, these huge places like the villages Sun City Center, which was one of the first one outside Tampa. on the East Coast, there are places called the and the name escapes me right now. Look in my book, you're fine.

David Wright: 14:25

So that's interesting. So you're saying that the elderly population skews white? I guess.

Gary Mormino: 14:31

Oh, very, very much, much wider. Yes. Because of in migration. Yeah. Elderly African Americans migrating here. In fact, in the in the new book, I talked about that, that there's a place called it's, it's in Flagler County, which is near St. Augustine. Huge. Southern Port St. Lucy, is what is one of them. And you've actually got this pattern of peoples whose families had left Florida in the 1920s, during the Great Migration throughout the South African Americans left, because for the first time, they had opportunities, they're now migrating back their grandchildren, because they think places like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, are really great places to be young, urban professionals. And there's one of those places there was a kind of a club of ex New Jersey black policeman. Hilarious. The the RE constitution of affiliations in Florida is just fascinating.

David Wright: 15:48

That is interesting. So I'm gonna come back to kind of this concept of like, what the problems might be there. So we have this is, you know, Florida's got this, you know, the Florida man thing has been very successful. It was crazy person, respiratory kind of reputation, you know, and I go down there, maybe it's because I'm primed for it. But I feel like I see some more weirdness there than least I do in New Jersey. It's probably the case that where people are everywhere, but there might be something that it attracts a couple of extra ones to Florida, do you buy that?

Gary Mormino: 16:17

I've always asked the question. Do crazy people immigrate to Florida or do perfectly normal people come here, and then be a little goofy and go crazy. And part of it is you're cutting it, you no longer need to have the shame of your relatives around you probably you wouldn't do these stupid things in Illinois, or places like that. But again, I think we've got more important issues to discuss than at Florida man, which seems may on the on the outskirts, I do enjoy reading a good Florida man story. But

David Wright: 16:58

well, there's like this, this the way in which, you know, if you give me the way you might take it seriously, or at least the underlying phenomenon is that this promotes a bad behavior. Right. So I'm an insurance industry. Right. And, and what you what insurance professionals see is a lot of duplicity amongst claimants. And it looks like that is there's something that underlies some of that's incentives. But the incentives come from somewhere or they're designed by policy. Right? So there's some kind of like underlying structure here that is it is an excessive permissiveness, I'm not sure. But like, it's definitely a different place to adjust an insurance claim, Florida than it is elsewhere. There must be a social kind of like driver of that. What do you think?

Gary Mormino: 17:44

Well, let me give you an example, which you'd be all too familiar with. One of the problems after hurricanes, of course, is roof damage. And probably in Illinois, if you knew the your insurance agent, because you went to school with him, you probably wouldn't send in a fraudulent claim, knowing that they were fraudulent, whereas here, you know, some out of state company or whatever. So I think that that tends to reinforce the behavior, but you really see this after hurricanes, the scams, it's heartbreaking, sometimes the the consequences of dress. So your book, so much of this has to do so many of the themes we talked about this morning, is it's a state of strangers, right? So for instance, in 911. What was it coincidence that about two thirds of the terrorist lived and planned the attack on 911? Living in places like Venice, in Cape Coral, and places like that? No, not really, because if everyone around you is a newcomer and a stranger, you can blend in pretty easily. They were even going in public libraries. And using a computer to ask questions, how do I guide a plane into a skyscraper? I mean, today, you'd have about 15 seconds and the FBI would burst in the door. But it was a different world in September 2001. But largely because Florida, particularly in places like Palm Beach County, Charlotte County, every almost every county in Florida, you have more strangers than people who've been there two or three generations.

David Wright: 19:39

Is that captured in the data somewhere because like, well, I'm trying to like come up with sort of the, you know, am I called like the cross sectional variation of other states, right. So there are lots of states with lots of immigrants. Is it that you know, within United States migration is especially high in Florida, if you compare it to like California is in some ways, like the, you know, alternative universe twin of Florida, right? It's very sunny, lots of immigrants. You know, lots of retirees, but it has some really different characteristics. Housing prices are much higher. There's more mountains, less retired folks seems to have a little bit less zaniness. You know, how would you compare Florida and California socially

Gary Mormino: 20:19

many ways Florida is California on the cheap.

David Wright: 20:22

Okay, interesting.

Gary Mormino: 20:24

But they're the two dream states. There was a, a California state librarian who, who wrote a book in the 1970s 1980s, called California and the American dream. And he was he kind of pioneered these things. So I've kind of copied him a lot of ways. met him several times and really good God. But there are fascinating parallels. California grew much faster, earlier than Florida. Gosh, I think in 1940, California had 8 million people in Florida, 2 million people to put the app may be low balling and by the way, same thing with California or Florida, New York. On on the eve of World War Two, Florida was the smallest state in the American South, smaller than that of South Carolina, Arkansas. It was about 1/4 or 1/5. The size of New York. In 2012, Florida surpassed New York. In population. We're about 23 million people now. Florida, California, New York are not growing fast at all. In fact, maybe losing in people. Florida is growing, but not at that frenetic pace, which is probably good. But Florida, Florida, California, or dream states and the idea being Kevin's star was his name, the California librarian. He said there are special characteristics to be a dream state. I don't think you're you're going to after this interview, you're going to be calling anyone in North Dakota, saying let's talk about the North Dakota dream. And in November, but dream states need long, many miles of coastline. California, Florida to probably number one and number two, if you exclude Alaska, palm trees, swaying palm trees to use an imagery, balmy winters and but most importantly, this is the vital ingredient, the promise the hint of a better life. So if you leave your farm in Illinois and go to California or Florida, you'll have a better life. You'll live longer. You'll have a second chance. As Scott Fitzgerald said, there are no second acts in American life. There are second chances. You can if you went bankrupt in New York, you can move to Florida and and start again. So there are a second chance yet you're you're widowed, you might marry again in Florida. So Florida is a play. Finally, there's the idea of a better life, or at least a better February in Florida, and I think Have I mentioned no income, no state income tax. Right? Well, for is not as cheap as it was. I mean, it's getting pricier. But oh my God, when I moved here in 77, I look back. It's almost head slapping. Why I didn't bike city of Clearwater or something. And for senior citizens, especially have all those qualities think that it's warm in the winter. You have you can you're widowed, but you have a possibility of new romance or new friendships, etc. So, Florida, California, what happened in California is California really went through a rough turmoil in the 90s with a variety of issues. Yeah. States are also very susceptible to natural disaster. Earthquake in the West hurricanes here.

David Wright: 24:51

They mean that coincidences are the list is long yet I think, California, in California, big place. I'll tell you One thing that I looked at as researching for this, the two states that have risen most in population density in the last 100 years since I get census data from 1910, are Florida and California. I was shocked about that. I did not think so California, they're like both in the 40. It's sort of like the 40s, the ranking 50 states. And then now they're, you know, I don't know, five and three years, something like that in terms of population density. Right. So that and that's the ranking of population density, right. So that accounts for all the growth or interrupt migration, all the other states, so like, you know, that I was not expecting, I was picked out of Florida, I was not expecting California to sort of be neck and neck there. And yet, it seems so like this concept of if you go from, you know, an agricultural state that's this sparsely populated, you're gonna have a certain social, cultural, political kind of situation. Right? Both those states probably had that 100 years ago, Florida somehow is preserved some of this intense individuality, but California has not California has gone hard left. Right. You know, communitarian, kind of quasi socialist. You know, I mean, it's just, I mean, I think that's an objective fact, very democratic. Even the Republicans are democratic over there, right in Florida is very different. Like, that's those are two really divergent political outcomes from if you kind of look at the characteristics, you need to think like, what caused that?

Gary Mormino: 26:22

Yes, for Florida, I think, number one would probably be retirees moving here, especially from the Midwest, although retirees from the Midwest also left earlier for California, but another factor connecting California and Florida is World War Two. World War Two was the big bang and a lot of ways. Both states were on the eve. Well, California was much heavier populated than Florida and 1940. Most states have, because they were on the oceans. Most states have long, long, a large number of military bases. So you had millions of Americans training there. And the GI is most of thought, God, this is beautiful. I mean, you're from North Dakota, and you were in Miami Beach or Long Beach in 1942. Someday I'm going to return. In many ways every gi returned to Florida as a tourist, as a transplant as a retiree, or buried in a military cemetery. There are so many military cemetery burials every day, they've run out of buglers. Most of the taps are now played in military funerals, their cassettes inside of Hugo hate to spoil this. But by the way, that's my next book. I'm working on World War Two in Florida. It's it's such an exciting work. I mean, the number of people future famous people, including George Herbert Walker Bush, John Kennedy, John Kennedy's late brother, all author had training in Florida in World War Two. George Herbert Walker Bush learned to fly and Boca Fort Lauderdale airfield. So did they know that his son later became governor of Florida? I mean, wow, the American dream.

David Wright: 28:41

So is that is that you mentioned one point earlier, which is a which is another Stark. So I think one data point that really differs, things can happen on this Florida, California, this table throw in the mix. Here's Arizona, which is one that seems to be kind of like Florida, in some ways, and politically, maybe lots of immigrants great weather,

Gary Mormino: 29:01

no coastline, as well. Yes. Both places.

David Wright: 29:03

Yes. And it seems like the the property prices in California are kind of like double per square foot what they are in Florida. So that's a really big difference. And then the retiree population in Florida. I bet you they're kind of a tie on immigration, you'd think right, and whether Yeah,

Gary Mormino: 29:21

different types of immigrants but certainly, right in one connector there is air conditioning. So yeah, you we're not having to you we're not having this conversation without air conditioning. You can't live in Arizona, most of the year. You can't live in Florida. Most people did. But we're wussies. Now, I mean, compared to our ancestors. There's a it's no accident that the first modern, relatively inexpensive air conditioner came in in the 50s. The carrier window unit khaolak coincide with Florida's Big Bang.

David Wright: 30:03

Right? And that wasn't as much of a requirement California, I guess a dryer. Right? It was the heat at night. It's probably not so bad. So that's means

Gary Mormino: 30:13

there's even a great lawsuit in Hollywood, Florida, there is a Hollywood, Florida. Yeah. In the 1950s, a neighbor sued a neighbor, what do you think the lawsuit was over? The neighbors air conditioner was clanging if you're too young to remember, but the window units, often if it was a screw was loose, you would have this rattling. And they're saying we can't sleep at night because of the neighbors rattling air condition. And the judge concluded, this is kind of like the the iron of the first automobile and the horse, you're going to have to get used to this. But air conditioning, I mean, most of the places I teach now, there are no windows, that even if for some reason. Electricity was no longer possible. You couldn't teach it indoors in many places in Florida, where you go to your drive in your eCognition car, get in air conditioned lobbies, etc. And we're totally addicted to air conditioning.

David Wright: 31:20

I remember one was down in Florida on business and I didn't somebody was doing business with I was driving them to lunch or something. And they got into my rental car. And the speed and almost like automaticity of them cranking the air conditioning when they got in it was it was like an uncommon guy didn't even remember he did it. Where he's like bedroom, all the air conditioning out to max, as soon as you step in the car is like, man, you did this a lot more than me. So I want to talk a bit about to the agricultural kind of culture there, which was, I mean, the predominant culture in Florida. It up until probably I mean more recently, I don't know. Can you maybe trace some of the history of that?

Gary Mormino: 32:07

Well, you're right. I mean, Florida and California both in the 19th century became America's fruit basket and winter, vegetable basket. Warm, warm winters, the soil in Florida is not necessarily that great, and that with with fertilizers, etc. And if it were McLean, it was good. Both places you needed a pliable workforce. And thus you had County Sheriff's who had almost unlimited power to enforce what we would now recognize as kind of a semi peonage. But from Florida, I mean, it's the orange state. I mean, we've got it's on license plates, it's the state nickname. There's like a half a dozen, Citrus County, Orange County, tangerine drive, et cetera. But as we discussed earlier, in my first day, I teach I now teach a class called food in history. And the first day we come in and the first question I asked students is, seems unusual. How many of you tell me what you had for breakfast today? And by the way, it would uphold mothers on their diet. Yes. But what's missing? Of course, if you're my age is no one. No one is drinking orange juice anymore. It's for a variety of reasons. It's too fattening. It's too uncool. You have too many options. You can get Kiwi flavored water or whatever. But orange juice, the the citrus industry in Florida this winter. For the first time since World War Two has fallen below the production of California. We surpassed California in the early 19, mid 1940s. And if you think about you would assume California, citrus groves would be far more valuable than Florida's and would have been surrendered to housing. But at least I was shocked that California still had that much citrus in production. I live in Pinellas County, St. Peter's were as late as 1950. We were number five in the state some 50,000 cartons a year. Even when I arrived in the 70s you could drive down some of these draw non interstate roads and there'd be scores of citrus groves and they could lure you in they give you Got a free glass of fresh orange juice, in hopes you'd buy syndicates back home etc. But we're just we've lost her taste for juice and and it's really sad. The Big Bang there was during World War Two they developed frozen concentrate. They'd always been so much loss. If you think of the typical baby boom mother in the 1950s. With five children, she doesn't have time to squeeze orange juice. So that if someone wrote, I think I wrote an excellent the most eloquent sentence in English language is mixed with two glasses of water and stir actually mixed with two cans of water and sewer. And any of your listeners younger than 40 won't get this

David Wright: 35:55

I mean, I remember it comes with orange juice, I'm only just 40 is the difference. Because I think of the kind of the features of Florida the agricultural decline. It could that be that they're paving over those Florida grows for condos in Florida, and California not doing that because the groves aren't anywhere near the coast. And people want to live on the coast is living on the coast, kind of like the defining feature of the Florida dream.

Gary Mormino: 36:20

Near the coast. Yeah. Although although the putting out there hurricane in Hurricane Charley hurricanes Michael, living near the water is increasingly expensive and dangerous. And and precut precarious? Well, Florida is really having a debate over this, whether we're out of our minds, to continue reinsuring houses on barrier islands. And now it's not going to happen in Florida is a very conservative state. The those Island communities generate a tremendous amount of tax receipts. But there is a inarticulate argument is that either two things should happen. You're on your own, that no one's going to insure you anymore. The state. It's just too dangerous to insure these very expensive places on islands like Santa Ana, or, and this isn't gonna happen either, because this is a conservative state, turn them into National Seashore sanctuaries. Have you if you've ever been to Cumberland Island, off the Georgia, Florida coast, there's an Andrew Carnegie castle there. There are no houses there anymore. That in 1970s, the federal government said this island should belong to everyone. So the deal was, we're not going to we're not going to make you move down. But when you die, the government will pay your heirs a fair price for your home. And we will tear the home down. And it's going to be basically a national Island. It's not going to happen. But I think it's an interesting idea to pursue.

David Wright: 38:34

So the the third option, I would say to your to one you're on your own can't get insurance to we're going to eliminate the houses and not need insurance. The third one is they socialize the insurance right becomes like a Medicare Quality Program for Florida residents where now the Florida government foots the bill for these things. Right. I mean, Florida's gonna

Gary Mormino: 38:55

conservative state that seems out of the box, but if it works, unwilling to listen,

David Wright: 39:07

well, I mean, I don't

Gary Mormino: 39:08

mean that we're running out of options.

David Wright: 39:10

I mean, to be clear, this is not an analysis of what works. I think that's a, you know, as my insurance, analytical mindset, that's insane, because there's all sorts of reasons why governments aren't quite as good at this at the private market. But this is like a kind of inevitability, right? The I mean, after Hurricane Andrew, you probably know this, but their insurance, the state insurance regulators, more or less lock the doors for a bunch of insurance companies if you can't raise rates, or you have to leave the entire state, and many of them did. And it created a weird little insurance industry in Florida full of very small companies, who are pretty vulnerable to the vagaries of the reinsurance market for their capital. And that can go away and they can pay their claims, but they weren't able to read and policies next year, every year that can happen and this year, we're gonna be in a renewal. Kind of pretty, pretty dire. I renewal market for the capital of those little insurance companies will kind of see how it pans out. But it's not a stable situation. And part of the reason is that the Florida doesn't want to pay. It doesn't want its customers to pay the prices that the biggest insurance companies want charge to stick around. And so there's like a tension there, where we don't want to think about what it really costs to live on the coast. In Florida,

Gary Mormino: 40:27

as I understand it after 2003, where we had no 2004 We had four hurricanes in five weeks. Charlie, Francis Ivan, forgotten the fourth Gene. Gene. It's so devastated the insurance market, that the big company StateFarm, et cetera, said, we're we're out of here, we'll set up dummy companies with a State Farm affiliation. But the national company is not responsible when they go bankrupt. Do I have that? Correct.

David Wright: 41:08

I think that actually happened after Hurricane Andrew.

Gary Mormino: 41:10

Okay, which was 990 90 343 or four? Three? Yeah. And hurricane, there's no question with global warming, hurricanes are getting more explosive. And our willingness to live on the water's edge is is creating kind of an apocalyptic situation.

David Wright: 41:38

And that's the expectation for folks right now. I think about kind of like, If Florida is you move here from Illinois, and you can live on the water. And that's awesome. If you were in Illinois, in Illinois, in Illinois, that would cost you a lot of freaking money. But here it doesn't, because we have so much coastline. So come on and live on the coast was like, brilliant, I want to live them I want to retire on the coast with the no state tax. And then you show up, and it's like, well, we've kind of not really been telling you what it really costs to live on the coast, you get a bait and switch. And then they're like, too bad. I'm living on the coast. I'm gonna vote for whatever politician lets me stay here is that that's the deal.

Gary Mormino: 42:15

I think that's a dead reckoning.

David Wright: 42:18

Okay, so there's another kind of piece to this, which I think that even maybe makes that point even stronger. You've um, you probably sick of hearing people tell you this, but you've called Florida Ponzi scheme. And I know you're being you're exaggerating it, but maybe you could explain that dynamic.

Gary Mormino: 42:35

Well, George Packer of New Yorker magazine, was in my office, I should add, I had no idea who it was. My colleagues told me later, but it's 2008. The great recession has just wrapped Florida, and he said, you have a metaphor for Florida. I said, well, in many ways, it's the Ponzi state. But let me explain it as a metaphor. The idea of Florida works very well, when 1000 newcomers arrive every day, which they had been, except for downturns in the economy, that scary by 1000 newcomers a day. and everything homes, they're paying property taxes. So the people who sell side and siding and who pay state taxes this, who paid the teachers, everyone's happy. No one ever asked what happens when they stop coming. And that's what happens during the Great Recession, they stopped coming. Florida was emailing, even losing people at one time. So the next week, I get a call from the Chamber of Commerce saying what the hell just happened. I'm holding a cover of New Yorker magazine, it says the Ponzi state and it blames you on this. So I was not the most popular person in St. Petersburg at that time. But I think it is a a metaphor that works. By the way. Ponzi who was an Italian immigrant, did come to Florida and practice his scheme here in the 1920s.

David Wright: 44:27

Florida man steals money from people. So the

Gary Mormino: 44:33

should we explain what a Ponzi scheme is? Do you think your readers will know that?

David Wright: 44:37

I think they've for the most part, we can leave them to look it up. The the way in which that so if I'm like the, I don't know, the the the leader of Florida, you know, is it the state assembly speaker or is it the visit the governor or whatever this synthesis of those people? What do they want, what they they want the growth because every place works better when everything's great I mean, that's not just the Florida they're amazing both Florida. So that was fast it was growing. And so everything works so well as a consequence of that. And you kind of always want to regain that. Because you know, as a politician when deliver that to people, that's what, that's what the people want. Like it's not I don't think is anything nefarious about this thing. There's something quite deep about the human condition that we all want to grow, we all want more money to coming in. It's just like life is easier that way, right? So if one of the foundational tenets of that explosive growth, I mean, in a good way, was lots of coastline for people to move to. And if the insurance industry says hey, or let's just abstract even farther away, if global warming, or whatever force at work there means more hurricanes, then the cost of living on the coast is going up. So the deal needs to be reworked, rewritten, right, like somehow, you know, you want to preserve the attractiveness of living on the coast because it is nice to live on the water with the appropriate safety protocols, building regulations, you know, some way to make it sustainable because otherwise it is a Ponzi scheme in the sense that you're buying into something and then once you got it, you got to get out again, in order for it to make any sense at all you want to have like a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow or at least more rainbow as opposed to having anything just sort of suddenly get cut off when the cat five finally hits Miami, or Tampa, you know, you don't want to like truly obliterate all these barrier islands you want those homes to be able to handle it or have towers be able to handle it you know, like I got to think some communities are doing better than others in new circumstances and must be a way forward here. Because the state just nationalizing all the insurance in Florida, to me is like one possible outcome here. And you know, seniors as right wing as they are in Florida, they all vote for Medicare, no matter which party is in power, they all like they they all like the subsidized insurance, and say, I think they will equally like subsidized housing prices and their ability to live on the coast. So I think they'll vote for it if they get that option. And what's the what's the real alternative?

Gary Mormino: 46:59

Interesting. I I use an example in the in the book in the land of sunshine book, written 10 years ago, that if your viewers remember the movie Fantasia, which is appropriately, Florida, Walt Disney's parents were born and married in Florida. They were the first couple of married in Lake County, I think in 1890. And as luck would have it, a freeze at that time, drove them out, drove them to Chicago, where Walt helped tear down the World's Fair. And the story is he feared Chicago would corrupt his children. So he moved to Marsiling, Missouri, which is the Senate and I always ask audiences, how many of you have been to Marsiling? Missouri and one person out of 1000s marsali, Missouri is also Mainstreet distance. It's his homage, but but in his film, he he really threw the dice down when he made this film Fantasia, I think it's 1940. Unlike a Mickey Mouse, this is this is really soon. It's got German, symphonic and Russian symphonic elements. German folktales and in the story, Mickey the Mouse is apprentice to Ian said, The Wizard of the castle, and the apprentice needs to hold buckets of water to the well. And after a while the will begins to flood and the mouse doesn't know what to do. So he takes the wizards hat and commands. Actually, he the the wizard arrives and with the right incantation stops the chaos. And this all sets up for your question. How do we create a Florida that has all the elements people want? beautiful parks? Seaside is available to everyone to visit and tour. And this is and have affordable housing and good paying jobs and a clean environment. And he that that's something no wizard can create. I mean, that's kind of a state dialogue here and we're not having a very fruitful one I think. And the governor is Governor Scott is very concerned actually he's no longer governor. He's the Senator Ron DeSantis will probably track me down. Ron DeSantis is a is running for president and he's very proud of his conservative stamp on the state. So the the the grand quest for the for a kind of a utopia in Florida is is unmatched I think.

David Wright: 49:58

Well, I think that you very narrowly, the something's going to happen to try and improve some of the social environment for to keep what little insurance capitals instead of Florida there. So that's something that's going to happen. But to me, the more longer term problem is an acknowledgement of this, this hurt, you know, Hurricane problem, right? So the, you know, during Florida's big run up, up through the 90s, up through late 2004, they had very, very little activity on that coast. I mean, I think if you stretch back in the course of history, and I think you even survey some of this history in one of your books, I mean, it's sticking out into that golf, like, you know, it's the most hurricane prone place on this planet of ours by a long way. And we're starting to see that happen. You have historical periods of quiescence, and then you have external periods of activity, and intent, increased activity, we are expecting, so like, it's gonna be we're gonna pay the hard way, like to me like the decision that the thing that worries me is the default, which is inactivity will result in something, something kind of terrible for Florida residents, and it will truly be a social disaster, I think because then people are going to lose, you know, like, here's one thing that I think about, I wonder about, like, you know, condo towers versus houses on baryons, houses, number lines tend to be owned by very wealthy people, right, even in Florida, I gotta think, right. But condo towers are where most people actually live and they must be better off. I mean, these communities, you're shaking your head, do you? What do you agree? Yeah, so they so is that the answer, but it's a luna Kondo, who lives near the coast.

Gary Mormino: 51:43

I urge readers to read John D. MacDonald, who was a great mystery writer. And he wrote a book called condominium. 19, seven, eight or so might have been earlier. But in that is all the elements you just talked about. Except at the time, no one could have imagined this conversation. But you've got this condominium bill. It's a shoddy materials because of bribes, etc. It's got so it's got all the elements there. And the big one comes, and the big one really hasn't come yet. I mean, both Charlie and Ian, were supposed to hit Tampa Bay had on both of them until 24 hours before every one every forecast, Tampa Bay. It is so build up the barrier islands with high rise condos and wealth, it would have been the worst financial catastrophe in American history. Probably environmental catastrophe in both both words at the last minute and went through less densely populated county, Charlotte, in this case,

David Wright: 52:59

there's a near miss, ya know, and

Gary Mormino: 53:01

but how many near misses Can you have? I mean, this, it's a pretty big target.

David Wright: 53:06

It's quite surprising that they do nearly Miss often. And frequently that I don't begin to understand kind of why that is, maybe it's just random variation. Eventually, one will spin right in.

Gary Mormino: 53:18

But you're you're right until Andrew, and then from Andrew until Charlie, you had relatively few hurricanes in the preceding 20. You're not sad, to Donna and 1960. From Donna, really to the 1990s. You had relatively few threatening hurricanes and people were thinking this is like the varia it's something that happened to your great grandfather, but it's it's no longer really is scary. And they come in cycles. And we're paying a price. And having no what we're really not having is a state dialogue about this. You know, a governor should sit down with insurance leaders, some environmental scientists, you know, let's let's have an honest discussion about what kind of state do we want to be what what can we still be that state and and and ignore hurricanes and the insurance issue? You know, who's the who owns the islands?

David Wright: 54:30

Are you aware of anybody having ever done something like that? Either in Florida or outside of Florida

Gary Mormino: 54:38

governor's who would have done it earlier, but it just wasn't a big issue on the ROI Collins in the 50s and 60s, I'm convinced would have ruined ask you from Pensacola a place famous for hurricanes would have welcomed this. But you know, I think It's just a political nonfactor now that at least our drug Governor today doesn't want to meet with Hurricane scientist. Because

David Wright: 55:12

not good news.

Gary Mormino: 55:14

The news is not the news they want and the outcome they want. And the criticism they want.

David Wright: 55:21

What are the issues in Florida people are focused on what is the thing that they want?

Gary Mormino: 55:25

Well, growth and growth is the issue everywhere. But not just on the coast. But But everywhere. Immigration is an issue. I mean, it's it's stunning. In 2000, when the new millennium rolled over, there was a New York Times headline that I thought, and I thought I knew Florida pretty well. But for the first time in Florida, there are now more Hispanics and blacks. If they go if you go back in Florida history, as late as 18, Amy there were probably more African Americans living in Florida than white men, which shows you it's not that the black population has shrunk. It's that immigration. The headline was more Hispanics than blacks. So immigration is a major issue. It used to be Cubans. Now, the latest new immigrant groups are Venezuelans and Puerto Ricans and I ran realize I'm not dumb. Puerto Ricans are not immigrants. They're American citizens. But they're immigrating here from the from the island, or more likely from New York, because they, their families had been in New York for a generation too. It's expensive. It's, it's scary. So particularly outside Orlando, many of them work in the Orlando service industry.

David Wright: 57:05

What are what are the differences or similarities? I mean, I think that within the US migration, I mean, culturally, in terms of influence could be just as impactful as in between country migration. We do we don't measure that. That people moving from Illinois, does that turn up in this data somewhere?

Gary Mormino: 57:25

It does. And I think the stat one of the one of the stats on I used from 1950 to 2000, I think it was for every for senior citizens who moved out of a state, not within the state, but from the state to a new state. One in four moved to Florida. And that is astonishing 25% of America senior population, that decline. It's declined a little bit in the last 20 years, but it's still significant. And one of the new factors and you hinted this at the beginning, you now have senior immigrants. Immigration was always a young man's a young woman's adventure, but now because of heightened awareness because the possibilities because of wanting to unify families, senior immigrants, senior Cubans, senior Venezuelans want to reunify with their family. If I were asked who's the most important figure in modern Florida history, it's not Henry Flagler, it's Fidel Castro, Fidel Castro, transform Florida. If you've never been in Little Havana, I would urge every reader if you go to Miami, make sure you go to low Havana. It is a fascinating dynamic. In the in the best sense, by the way. I'm not. This is not, you know, Titanic watching this is really a dynamic community, a clearly a dynamic political community. As late as 2000, many demographers were predicting. Cubans are going to turn democratic. They had been staunchly Republican for obvious reasons. But in fact, they they are doubling down now they they're still it's if you think about if you're the grandson of a Cuban immigrant from 1960. Your major concern is not life is not Fidel Castro, who's dead. You have all the concerns of Americans getting a job making sure your kids have good education. And these are the issues that affect immigrants and Floridians and Americans.

David Wright: 59:57

So you're saying that the Castro of Fidel Castro being the most important character figure in Florida is is because the Cuban Revolution and that just sparked a massive influx of Cuban immigrants to Miami,

Gary Mormino: 1:00:10

millions, millions. I mean, and it also realigned the state politics. Yeah, that John Kennedy, the president, during the Bay of Pigs never followed up with an aerial bombardment changed the dynamics of Florida's history and American political history in many ways that the Cuban vote has been a solid Republican vote since 1961. And I should add, no, no immigrant group ever received more favorable treatment than Cuban Americans and because we wanted to embarrass Fidel what better way to humiliate Fidel than have his refugees succeed in America? So the amount of government training, bilingual training, etc. was pretty impressive. Or horrifying depending upon your readers. Viewpoints

David Wright: 1:01:12

right. So that it seems to me like the the concept of right the Republican Party's principles or at least call it anti communist principles, right. So to a certain extent, Florida's re anti communist kind of reactionary place, right Venezuela the same so people who come to Florida from he's been asked whether the most two most important immigrant emigration immigrating countries to Florida are highly socialist or really socialist places.

Gary Mormino: 1:01:40

Venezuelans are the newest and most potent political figures in Florida, because of the sheer numbers and the fact that I mean, Venezuela is where the Bobcats I mean, this was the model South American country in 1960. They had, I believe, a higher quality of life than many first world countries, and they had vast amounts of petroleum. And here socialist experiments turn disaster. Yeah, it's it's very depressing to witnesses but Doral and Weston, in Miami Dade County are the two biggest Venezuelan colonies in Florida. And they call the Raul Dora's Wailoa is the nickname. If you want a Anoeta, that's the that's the great Venezuelan snack, main dish.

David Wright: 1:02:51

I haven't had it, I will try that next time I'm down there.

Gary Mormino: 1:02:54

We'll cross the cornmeal crust. It's quite tasty. I'm imagining it's amazing.

David Wright: 1:02:59

One of the things that seems to be the case everywhere else is inside of large cities, you have more of a left leaning kind of political or, you know, community oriented, I guess. My Own Private X personal explanation is that a lot of rules that society can write helps people just learn to live really close to each other. And without those rules, you know, it seems like large cities are almost always left of the rural areas. But in Florida, we kind of have seniors, Venezuelans, Cubans, you know, seriously countering that trend, and kind of resulting in a different political dynamic than you might get somewhere else.

Gary Mormino: 1:03:42

I used to argue 10 years ago that it's wrong to talk about Republican leaning Democratic leaning counties in Florida, that you had Democratic leaning cities, but Republican counties, but there would be more democratic votes. And that's that's blurred a little bit of my Well, Miami Dade in the last election a few weeks ago. Miami Dade went Republican with Republican No, yes Republican which has been known by any date had been relatively democratic because of the the Jewish presence there. But in general, the big cities in Florida are not as left leaning. They are depending where Jacksonville is Republican. For instance, Jacksonville is the biggest city in Florida but Jacksonville is a little unusual. It's the city and county are the same. So Devall County is the same as the City of Jacksonville. But it's it's also the only major County in Florida. That's not minority majority.

David Wright: 1:05:00

Right, it's more of a southern kind of city. And in some ways, ironically in the north Florida's people point out. So you wind up any solution to the kind of the problems as the insurance industry looks at this, which is my main perspective on Florida is going to have to be a solution that caters to Republican right wing kind of priorities. Somehow that they're you think legitimate. Wonder how we do that, and

Gary Mormino: 1:05:33

we're not likely to change dramatically. Right.

David Wright: 1:05:37

I mean, I think that once you have some path dependence once you have a certain political culture, it attracts people who want that culture. Right.

Gary Mormino: 1:05:43

Well, to be honest, the Republicans have outworked outflank the Democrats in recruiting candidates. The names would be meaningless to your listeners, but in when the new century opened in 2000, you had two young democrats, Peter Rudy Wallace, and Jim Davis, good looking guys, Ivy League, credentials, etc. One in the Florida, the Florida legislature, the other in the US Congress. One ran for governor and last and the other both of them dropped out basically, in that. I think they concluded there's not much of a future to be a Democratic leader in this state. I mean, if you're a if you're a Democrat living in Florida today, you've never known a Democratic governor in the new century. In the 21st century. There hasn't been a Democratic governor. Since I think 1999. By the way, great, you should give a prize out to anyone. The answer is buddy McCain, who would serve for one month after law and child died. But when I arrived in the 19, late 70s, there was a long list of iconic Democrats, Bob Graham, who was US senator and governor, Lawton Chiles that he Kuhn who never lost an election in his life. And several others. I'm trying to think I can't even come up with a name of a Democrat. You'd want to put money in saying can't miss. The Republicans have just outworked and also the it's the demographics, you know, it's a Democrat, demographics is destiny in politics. Yeah, but you never know what a disaster what, you know, the consequences politically could be, you know, 911 For instance, one. What if

David Wright: 1:08:05

they will, I mean, hopefully, when we find out it will be a better situation, you know, preparedness in Florida. So we'll have to end it there, Gary. My guest today is Gary Moore, meno latest book, dreams of a new century. Appreciate your time, Gary. Thank you.

Gary Mormino: 1:08:23

Thanks, a lively conversation.